Alexey Poznyak from the Institute of Demography states that there can be no forced repatriation of refugees.

Currently, around 5 million Ukrainians live abroad, having left due to the war. Various estimates suggest that about half are willing to return home. How does the departure of people impact the economy and the workforce crisis, and what should the government do to facilitate their return – read more.

Nearly three years into the large-scale war, it is evident that some refugees who fled under shelling will not return home. However, how many people will choose to live abroad is something even social surveys cannot reveal at this time. This will become clearer in the first year after the fighting ceases, believes Alexey Poznyak, a senior researcher at the M.V. Ptukha Institute of Demography and Social Studies, and a candidate of economic sciences.

Another issue is that young men under 18 are leaving Ukraine with their families. Parents are taking them out of fear of a potential draft to the front lines. The restriction on leaving the country once children reach adulthood also plays a role.

What challenges might Ukraine face if a significant portion of refugees does not return, and what could encourage Ukrainians to come back – in Alexey Poznyak's interview for RBK-Ukraine.

– Just recently, a report from the VR was released by the Working Group on the Protection of IDP Rights. It stated that 7.7 million Ukrainians are currently abroad, with 5.3 million – in the EU. This is even more than what Eurostat reports. Why is there such a significant discrepancy?

– It is likely that the figure of 7.7 million includes labor migrants who left the country a long time ago and have been living and working abroad for a certain period before the full-scale invasion. The numbers provided by Eurostat refer to those Ukrainians who arrived in the EU territory since February 24, 2022, and are benefiting from temporary protection there.

– How do you assess these figures? Ukraine has never faced such a scale of emigration before.

– These are quite substantial figures. This poses a serious blow to demographics, the ability to supply the economy with labor, and overall, to the normal functioning of the state. It is a very serious problem.

– What consequences might we see in the long term and in the near future?

– We may encounter issues in the labor market. It will be challenging to find people for specific vacancies, especially for certain specialties. Regarding salaries, there might be some increases, but this factor also has certain limits. Our entrepreneurs cannot raise salaries at a loss, and that is something to keep in mind.

Photo: Migration losses will lead to increased aging of the population, Alexey Poznyak (RBK-Ukraine/Vitaliy Nosach)

The loss of a significant number of young and middle-aged individuals, especially women, will lead to a decline in birth rates and a corresponding decrease in demand for preschool and school institutions. This will also trigger a rise in unemployment among those professions.

Moreover, migration losses will intensify the aging population and increase the burden on those segments of society that produce material goods and paid services.

The long-term prospects will depend on how the situation unfolds. If a significant portion of migrants returns, it will contribute to economic development. This is possible, particularly if the war ends and security is established. The second condition is whether there will be job opportunities.

There are frequent discussions about the investments that will be made in the Ukrainian economy during the post-war revival. If this indeed materializes, we can expect a significant portion of our migrants to return, along with an influx of migrants from other countries.

– How significantly should the economic situation improve for this to happen? Many refugees in Europe are currently receiving quite decent social benefits and salaries that they did not have in Ukraine.

– Overall, even before the full-scale invasion and even before the start of the hybrid war, experts assessed that if the salary at home is about 70% of the salary level in the host country, this is a serious incentive for refugees to return. This 30% difference is compensated by the fact that a person is within the legal framework of their own state. It is compensated by the familiarity of the surroundings.

– How does prolonged stay abroad affect Ukrainians? How quickly can they mentally detach from our realities and lose context about what is happening in the country?

– Certainly, when a person is outside the country, they receive a completely different layer of information: partially from their homeland and partially from the host country. Additionally, it is easier for various propaganda materials to penetrate the information space there. While we have a certain barrier, in countries hosting our migrants, such barriers do not exist.

There is a general migration pattern: the longer the migration lasts, the larger the share of migrants who will not return. This is a factor that has existed throughout history among all peoples.

Regarding return incentives, it may play a role that some migrants who value their past career achievements will return. These are people who held prestigious jobs in Ukraine, and few can find similar positions abroad. Most are offered relatively simple jobs.

Photo: Due to the lack of people in the country, we will face a shortage of personnel in various sectors (Getty Images)

The feeling of a decreased social status is a very serious blow, including psychologically. The opportunity to restore this status, even with lower earnings, can also serve as an incentive for return. And if we talk about earnings, we should consider that while they may be lower in Ukraine, prices are generally lower than in EU countries. Purchasing power is not the same as salary.

– Will the availability of various services – social, medical – influence the decision to return? Everyone has heard about the long waiting times for doctors in Europe.

– This may also serve as an incentive, but it will not be the main factor. The primary factors are safety and employment. Housing can also be considered one of the most important factors. Many have nowhere to return to, and if there is no way to secure housing without giving away all their money, this will deter refugees from the desire to return.

– Officials often state that efforts must be made to facilitate the return of people. There is already a corresponding strategy. What steps are advisable here first?

– It is easier to bring back refugees who left specifically due to the large-scale war. This is because among labor migrants, there are relatively few who held highly qualified jobs in Ukraine, and they are generally satisfied with the level of work they have. They are not only happy with their salaries but also with the work itself.

Some forced migrants are also satisfied with the salary levels abroad. However, as I mentioned, they are not always satisfied with their social status, which is determined by their type of employment.

At this stage, I do not think it is rational to stimulate return. After all, our people are safe there, and the state is interested in their preservation. So that later, after the war ends, specific measures can be taken to facilitate their return.

At this point, we simply need to maintain connections with them, showing and demonstrating that the state is interested in them, that they have not been forgotten. We must show that the state wants to cooperate with them. It is important to maintain ties with public organizations of Ukrainians abroad.

It is also crucial to provide education for our children in Ukrainian international schools and through other means according to our national program. If a child attends school in the host country, it will be challenging, but we should facilitate at least the study of subjects not taught in the schools they attend. This includes Ukrainian history, the Ukrainian language, and literature (the Ukrainian studies component – ed.).

Photo: The main factor for the return of refugees is safety and the absence of hostilities (RBK-Ukraine/Vitaliy Nosach)

– However, most people, if they have been living abroad for several years, are likely to enroll their children in local foreign schools. How does this affect the decision to return or not return to Ukraine?

– It is not just a matter of enrolling in local schools – this is a requirement from the host countries. Some countries initially required attendance, while others began to require it over time. In reality, if a child remains engaged in the Ukrainian educational context, it does not mean they are pursuing two full programs. Two full programs is an exaggeration, as the Ukrainian program for such children includes only a few subjects. Each family decides for themselves.

Those who continue to study Ukrainian language and literature abroad are more likely to return to Ukraine than those who do not. However, this will be individual, and it is currently difficult to determine which individuals will return and which will not.

– Can we say that we will lose a significant part of the new Ukrainian generation – those children currently studying in foreign schools who will then identify more with the countries they live in?

– Certainly, migrants, especially children, will face difficulties