Mikhail Podolyak: Ukraine is collaborating with Trump, and his stance on the war and Russia is expected to evolve.

The Ukrainian side is already engaging with the team of the elected U.S. President Donald Trump and is establishing relations with the future administration. There is a possibility that in the near future, his stance on the war with Russia and the principles of a just peace may begin to gradually change. This was shared with the YouTube channel RBC-Ukraine by Mikhail Podolyak, advisor to the head of the President's Office.

Negotiations with Russia and Trump's Position

The Russian Federation does not want negotiations; it’s all a facade. They will not stop unless forced into a genuine negotiation process. Therefore, there is no option of "let's have negotiations, and Russia will agree to freeze the conflict on its terms." Because the Russian Federation can only exist in a state of expansion until it faces defeat. Our partners need to be aware of this.

Currently, there is an understanding of what weapons have proven effective on the battlefield and in what quantities they should be supplied to Ukraine. Again, Russia has significant issues with resource saturation. They are compensating for this through North Korea and Iran and are investing much more in their production. Consequently, investments in European manufacturing are increasing, and there are agreements on supplies throughout 2025.

I find all the fears regarding whether Trump will suspend aid a bit strange. For Russia to win the war and claim global dominance? Conceptually, this seems odd even for conspiracy theories. Would they voluntarily relinquish global dominance? Russia will behave much more arrogantly in international negotiations. They won't just say: let Ukraine give up some territory. Russia will insist on controlling Europe. They will demand that NATO withdraw bases to the locations they occupied before 1997.

The question with Trump (– ed.) is solely about the communications that need to be established at the president-to-president level and beyond. We need to work on explaining the logic of the war and Putin's personal motives. The Americans have already signed a protocol on the transfer of power from the Biden administration to the Trump administration. This will allow Trump's team to delve deeper into federal programs and gain access to critically important information that clearly outlines Russia's intentions. In my opinion, this will significantly influence the perception of the war, not just by Trump himself, but by his circle.

President Zelensky states that there are agreements in place. The main thing is that they are fulfilled in a timely and complete manner. We are not talking about increasing anything. At the very least, what has already been discussed should arrive in Ukraine on time. This will have a very specific impact on the front line.

We understand that everything depends on logistics. If earlier we talked about destroying logistics in the occupied territories using, for example, HIMARS, we now realize that the main Russian logistical resources are in the border areas extending 200-300 km deep. If long-range missile strikes are scaled up, this will significantly limit Russia's resources.

How Ukraine Works with Trump's Team

Intensive negotiations are indeed ongoing. I don't want to delve into the details yet because everything is fragile, and communication is just forming. But I believe it's not so clear-cut: whoever communicates with Trump first (Ukraine or Russia, – ed.) will gain some dividends.

Russia has and will maintain certain lines of communication. It’s important for them to mislead everyone; they have compromising and financial capabilities. They have established connections and incorporated a large number of individuals related in one way or another to the information, economic, and financial sectors. There are even politicians integrated into the Russian agenda.

The question is that we must secure these communications and work on that. Then there will be a voice against a voice, and we will always have a more adequate position because we adhere to international law. We say that it is the West that established the rules, and the Russian Federation is violating them. If this is allowed, then all rules can be nullified, and we can calmly wait for wars to escalate.

If you don't want that, you must utilize Ukraine's experience and communication capabilities to understand what to do next in this war. Therefore, such relationships are being established at various levels. I believe they will be effective.

I think we do not clearly understand the psychotypes of the people we are dealing with. Putin is understandable. Trump is also, as he has a leader's psychotype. Playing a scenario where you have a secondary role is definitely not for him. He is a pragmatic person who will clearly weigh the pros and cons of the situation. The damage from playing the Russian scenario is much greater than any potential benefits. Conversely, playing the Ukrainian scenario is much more profitable from political, reputational, and economic perspectives. I don't understand why Trump should act against his interests; what logic is there in these actions?

To speak publicly about working with Trump, everything must first be coordinated with the American side. There are many of our delegations there, including military personnel, and deputies are constantly in communication with congressmen and senators. There are many lobbyists, and a considerable amount of work is being done. We should not expect that one or two meetings will change the situation. Today, Ukraine's subjectivity, realized through communications with the U.S., is much greater than it was two or three years ago.

How U.S. Sociology Will Influence Trump's Position on Ukraine

Trump cannot ignore the opinions of Americans, but public opinion on aid to Ukraine is divided down the middle. There are several factors at play. Firstly, the electoral campaign was tough, and his team wanted to separate its foreign policy from Biden's. But all of this will gradually change.

If we conduct the right communication policy regarding the U.S., and they adjust their information policy accordingly, we will return to the situation at the beginning of the Russian invasion, when 70-75% of Americans supported full aid to Ukraine.

Especially considering that Republicans, who react strongly to authoritarian manifestations not only from Russia, will dominate. If it is added that American arms manufacturers can dominate the market, pushing Russia out of it.

The Attitude of Ukrainians Towards a Freeze in the War and Negotiations with the RF

The question here is whether Russia truly wants a freeze in the conflict? Does it not want to realize its hatred, which has especially intensified over the past three years? Because Ukraine, in essence, has humiliated the concept of Russian greatness, which allowed them to be considered a global player. They hate us much more than before the full-scale invasion.

On the other hand, we see the transformation occurring in Russian society. It is an extremely aggressive state, a certain "urkostan." Thus, Russia will not negotiate civilized relations. It is interested in Ukraine ceasing to exist. There is nothing to discuss with Russia; it will kill us. Even if you are ready to negotiate something, it does not mean that the other side will agree to it.

Our people express readiness to stop the war, which is an understandable position. We need to persistently explain the true motives of the RF and why it is impossible to negotiate with them. This is difficult because there is fatigue from the war. There are strange individuals who want to hype, claiming that everything is simple, look at what Western media write. They supposedly found a quick solution – let's force Ukraine to lose. Let it cede part of its territories, and thereafter let Russia determine the foundations of Ukraine's internal and foreign policy. In Western media, they talk about some global rules, international law, and at the same time about stimulating the aggressor at the expense of the victim.

This is nonsense, but the discussion is ongoing. And we see what is happening in elections across Europe. There are two problems – unexamined risks generated by Russia, and societies in those countries no longer want a collective irresponsible policy. They want charismatic leaders who will take responsibility, even if they are wrong. Why do I believe that Trump can propose to restructure collective irresponsibility? Because he can set an example: there are rules, if you violate them – you must answer. This is leadership, and people want to have such leaders in European countries as well.

Trump's Victory and the "Nuts" Strike: Is Europe Ready to Help Ukraine?

In Europe, they have realized that Russia is an absolutely inadequate country. There are still politicians who believe that if they call Putin and simply ask him for something, everything will be fine, and the war will end. But that is not the case, and the RF has demonstrated through harsh strikes after the call (from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, – ed.) that Putin seeks to humiliate Europeans. And when an intercontinental ballistic missile was used, it became clear that a tougher stance towards Russia is necessary. That it will not stop at the borders of the Donetsk region.

Europe is changing its political rhetoric, accelerating