Valery Chaly: A ceasefire won't end the war with Russia; Ukraine requires guarantees for lasting peace.
Regarding negotiations with Russia and territorial compromises, the end of the war, and strategies for victory, as well as the U.S. elections and Ukraine's relations with the EU and NATO – former Ukrainian ambassador to the U.S. (2015-2019) and chairman of the Ukrainian Crisis Media Center, Valeriy Chaly, shared insights in an interview with RBC-Ukraine.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
- On the outcome of Zelensky's visit to the U.S.
- On the U.S. elections and bipartisan support for Ukraine
- On the scenario for Ukraine's NATO membership and territorial compromise
- On the peace formula, peace summit, and victory plan
- On Ukraine's integration into the European Union
The visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the U.S. was challenging. He aimed to convey Ukraine's "victory plan" to key partners, but instead, Ukraine was actively drawn into the U.S. election campaign.
Amid this, Western media increasingly reported on the Ukrainian president's readiness for negotiations and territorial concessions for a ceasefire, as well as U.S. President Joe Biden's willingness to reconsider the status of Ukraine's NATO application. The Kremlin reacted to Zelensky's visit and his demands to lift the ban on strikes with long-range Western weapons deep into Russia by announcing a review of its nuclear doctrine. Additionally, China and Brazil introduced the "Friends of Peace" initiative, promoting their vision of "ending the conflict," which contradicts Ukrainian interests.
Valeriy Chaly, who served as Ukraine's Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Ambassador to the U.S. during President Petro Poroshenko's term, experienced the nuances of American politics firsthand.
The diplomat shared his insights with RBC-Ukraine regarding the events surrounding Zelensky's visit to Washington, emphasized the peculiarities of the U.S. electoral system, discussed Ukraine's chances of receiving permission for strikes into Russia and an invitation to NATO, expressed views on the likelihood of territorial compromises, the need to reassess war strategies, the feasibility of moving the conflict beyond the country's borders, the difficulties in relations with Poland and Hungary, and the prospects of the Chinese-Brazilian "Friends of Peace."
For the full conversation with Valeriy Chaly, see the video; below are selected quotes from the diplomat in text format.
On the outcome of Zelensky's visit to the U.S.
If the goal of the trip was to convey the victory plan, communicate Ukraine's position, and articulate requests, then it seems successful – meetings occurred, and despite the challenges, one meeting took place with one of the candidates (Donald Trump, - ed.).
If we talk about the key objectives that I would consider essential, they are assistance in the war, aligning our visions on how to defeat Russia, obtaining permission for long-range strikes, and, of course, an invitation to NATO.
I believe the decision on long-range capabilities will come after the elections on November 5 in the U.S., as the administration does not want to make any drastic moves right now.
Overall, the results of Zelensky's visit to the U.S. are distant in time. Therefore, we cannot evaluate it; real results are not achieved through meetings alone.
On the U.S. elections and bipartisan support for Ukraine
The configuration of the next U.S. Congress is more important than the name of the president or president-to-be. For example, Donald Trump controlling both chambers and Donald Trump lacking control of the Senate, where his nominations are not confirmed, are two different scenarios. And Kamala Harris without the House of Representatives will have no financial leverage. Thus, the configuration is critically important.
It has turned out that November 5 is a sacred date for us. It seems that after this, everyone will start looking for solutions to exit the large-scale war, and by next year, these solutions will be in place. Everyone operates under this paradigm. But why should it come true?
On Trump's unpredictability
Donald Trump's presidency has already passed, and everyone could draw their conclusions. For me, this is an absolutely clear story; I saw it from the inside, and I will say this – Ukraine will have to work with whoever the American people choose, so we need to prepare various tools for this.
It is a great misconception to believe that the people surrounding Trump now will hold positions in the White House. This is not the case. There will be a transition team that will form this list. So, there are balances, specific circumstances, and there is Congress, after all.
And I would not say that it will be easier for us with a Democratic candidate. The people who were in her team before are very difficult to work with. I worked with them; they are from the Obama team. At that time, they had no desire to help Ukraine with lethal weapons. It was an impenetrable wall.
However, now Harris has dismissed part of her staff – out of 47 people, 44 no longer work with her. Only the closest assistants remain. And Mr. Phil Gordon, who is her national security advisor. So, can we say where it will be easier for us in terms of diplomatic work?
On the results of the U.S. elections
I do not rule out the possibility, I would give it a 10% chance, that by January 20 we will not see a U.S. president, and the duties will be performed by the Speaker of the House of Representatives. I remind you that in 2016, this legal specificity was seriously discussed in the States – if the results of the elections are not established by certain dates, who should make decisions at that time? It should not come to that, but we should not rule out that we will have a sufficiently long turbulent period in the U.S., where there will be no decisions on the budget or weapons. This is our problem. Our focus in Ukraine is incorrect. The whole world may consider the victory of Trump or Harris, but we should look for tools for December, January, and February.
An unknown fact about Trump's contact with Ukraine
At one time, Donald Trump's close relatives visited Ukraine for business purposes – as tourists, but "hunting," so to speak, with a budget of 20 million dollars. They wanted to invest in a resort in the mountains of western Ukraine but were deterred by our corruption and greed. They were intentionally told about additional costs, so they simply cooled to this idea. They also went to Russia, by the way, and there it did not work out either. Even Mikhail Saakashvili offered to build a hotel for Trump. I do not know what happened after that, but in Ukraine, I know for sure, they were burned by the greed of Ukrainian officials, not just at the central level, but at the local level.
On Russia's interference in the U.S. elections
Putin participated in an information operation to interfere in the U.S. elections when he stated that he supports the Democrats, not Donald Trump. Do you understand what this was? It was a direct pass to Donald Trump. And it largely worked. The Kremlin is not working to support Trump or Harris; they are trying to destabilize America so that America remains turbulent. They are pushing Ukraine forward to make it seem like Ukraine is interfering in the elections.
Unfortunately, we have many people with influence and contacts with Trump who play along with this. Everything is very complicated. Some countries even decided to abstract themselves during the election period, to the point where they evacuated half of their embassy for vacation.
On the scenario for Ukraine's NATO membership and territorial compromise
It is not yet time to seriously discuss such actions officially. There can only be scholarly opinions and journalists' articles on this. Do not forget that we are in defense, and it is evident that whoever starts such movements in this situation loses by default. And if it is not capitulation, it is a very serious loss of position that will then reflect on further actions.
If we project into the future, where we hope to emerge from winter, despite strikes on infrastructure, receive weaponry, political decisions, and become stronger, then we can talk about something. But even then, the question will arise of how to ensure security for Ukraine.
Everyone wants to call it peace, although in reality, it will be a ceasefire, perhaps a truce, but only for a time. So how do we ensure security? Because everyone understands that the war will not end. Well, at least Russia has not changed its goals.
Americans, when they came to Kyiv, urged Zelensky to be more flexible in Washington. Essentially, they expected him to discuss possible territorial compromises. But how can the President of Ukraine discuss territorial